If you’ve been waiting on the official Social Security raise for next year, here’s the straight scoop: the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment isn’t in jeopardy it’s just delayed because the September CPI-W report got pushed to October 24 after a government shutdown pause. That CPI-W reading is the final piece needed to calculate the 2026 COLA, and once it lands, the announcement follows fast and payments still rise on schedule with January checks.
CPI-W data delayed amid government shutdown means the headline COLA reveal slid roughly a week, not that your 2026 benefit increase is at risk. The Bureau of Labor Statistics rescheduled the September CPI-W to October 24 at 8:30 a.m. ET, and the Social Security Administration will publish the official 2026 COLA after that release. The calculation itself doesn’t change only the timing does so expect a mid–2% type adjustment based on recent inflation trends, finalizing once September’s CPI-W posts.
Table of Contents
CPI-W Data Delayed Amid Government Shutdown
| Item | Update | Why It Matters | Timing |
|---|---|---|---|
| September CPI-W Release | Rescheduled due to shutdown | SSA needs July–September CPI-W to finalize COLA | October 24, 8:30 a.m. ET |
| 2026 COLA Announcement | Moves with CPI-W release | Official percentage set immediately after data | Same day or within 24–48 hours |
| Payment Start | Unchanged | January 2026 checks include the new COLA | January 2026 |
| Beneficiaries Affected | Tens of millions | Planning clarity delayed, not payments | Late October notice timeline |
| Estimated Range | Mid–2% likely | Useful for provisional budgeting | Confirm after CPI-W posts |
CPI-W delay from the government shutdown pushed the 2026 COLA announcement to October 24, but it did not change the formula, the outcome timeline, or the January payment schedule. Treat a mid–2% increase as a provisional planning anchor, confirm your updated amount in December, and watch Medicare premiums to gauge your net deposit. Once the September CPI-W posts, the official rate follows quickly so your 2026 raise will still arrive on time with your January check.
Why The CPI-W Delay Happened
A partial government shutdown briefly froze routine federal statistics and forced the inflation calendar to shift. With September CPI-W pushed to October 24, the COLA announcement naturally moved with it. This is a timing issue, not a policy shift, and it doesn’t alter how COLA is computed or when benefits are paid.
What It Means For Your 2026 COLA
Only the announcement date changed; your 2026 increase will still be applied to January payments. Expect your updated benefit amount to appear in your online account or in mailed notices before year-end. If you auto-budget, assume a reasonable mid–2% range, then fine-tune after the official number drops.
How COLA Is Calculated
The Social Security Administration averages CPI-W for July, August, and September and compares it to the same three-month period a year earlier. If the current average is higher, the percentage difference becomes next year’s COLA. The formula is mechanical and doesn’t depend on when the data is released—just that the September figure is in.
What To Expect On October 24
Once the CPI-W is published, the COLA percentage typically posts the same day or shortly after. Plan for rapid updates to press releases and agency pages, followed by individualized benefit updates in November–December. Payments with the new rate start in January as usual.
How Big Might The 2026 COLA Be
Recent inflation has cooled from the peaks of 2022–2023, pointing to a more modest increase than those standout years. Early reads suggest a mid 2% result is plausible, but the September CPI-W will set the final decimal. Treat any estimate as a placeholder until the number is official.
Key Dates You Should Know
- October 24: September CPI and CPI-W release in the morning, with the COLA announcement expected soon after.
- November–December: Individualized notices and online updates reflect your new monthly amount.
- January 2026: First payments with the 2026 COLA applied land on your normal schedule.
Why The Shutdown Didn’t Derail Payments
Benefit operations continue regardless of the appropriations hiccup, and the trust funds remain in place. The shutdown only affected the publication schedule for data—not Social Security’s ability to calculate or deliver your 2026 increase once that data is available.
How Many People Are Affected
Roughly 70–75 million beneficiaries are awaiting the official percentage. For many households, even a few tenths of a point can mean meaningful monthly dollars, especially when Medicare premiums and other essentials are rising.
What To Do Right Now
- Log in to your account in late November or December to confirm your updated benefit amount and direct deposit details.
- Build a provisional budget assuming a mid–2% increase; adjust after the official reveal.
- Watch for Medicare premium updates that can influence your net deposit.
CPI-W data delayed amid government shutdown means the announcement slid to October 24, but your 2026 raise still starts with January checks. Expect a modest, mid–2% increase, confirm your updated amount in December, and keep an eye on Medicare premiums to understand your net benefit.
FAQs on CPI-W Data Delayed Amid Government Shutdown
Will The Shutdown Delay My 2026 Payments?
No. Only the announcement shifted to align with the rescheduled CPI-W release. January payments with the new COLA still arrive on time.
When Will the Official 2026 COLA Be Announced?
After the September CPI-W is released on October 24 in the morning, with the COLA figure often posted the same day.
What Data Determines The COLA?
The SSA uses the average CPI-W for July, August, and September compared with the same period last year. The percentage change becomes the next year’s COLA.
How Should I Budget Before The Announcement?
Use a mid 2% assumption for planning, then update your numbers once the official percentage is published.
Does the shutdown change how COLA is calculated?
No. The formula is fixed: SSA compares the average CPI-W for July, August, and September to the same period last year. The delay only affected when September’s CPI-W was published, not the methodology or January payment timing.
How can I estimate my new benefit before the official number?
Use a provisional mid 2% increase as a placeholder. Multiply your current gross monthly benefit by 0.026 to 0.028 to get a rough range, then update once the official COLA is published.
